Uncertainty Analysis with High Dimensional Dependence Modelling
Chapter One
Introduction: Uncertainty
Analysis and Dependence
Modelling
1.1 Wags and Bogsats
'... whether truef or not [it] is at least probable; and he who tells nothing exceeding
the bounds of probability has a right to demand that they should believe him who
cannot contradict him'. Samuel Johnson, author of the first English dictionary,
wrote this in 1735. He is referring to the Jesuit priest Jeronimo Lobo's account
of the unicorns he saw during his visit to Abyssinia in the 17th century (Shepard
(1930) p. 200).
Johnson could have been the apologist for much of what passed as decision
support in the period after World War II, when think tanks, forecasters and expert
judgment burst upon the scientific stage. Most salient in this genre is the book
The Year 2000 (Kahn and Wiener (1967)) in which the authors publish ... read full excerpt from Uncertainty Analysis with High Dimensional Dependence Modelling ebook
