Forecast Verification
A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science
Chapter One
Introduction
IAN T. JOLLIFFE AND DAVID B. STEPHENSON
Forecasts are almost always made and used in the belief that having a
forecast available is preferable to remaining in complete ignorance about
the future event of interest. It is important to test this belief a posteriori by
assessing how skilful or valuable was the forecast. This is the topic of
forecast verification covered in this book, although, as will be seen, words
such as 'skill' and 'value' have fairly precise meanings and should not be
used interchangeably. This introductory chapter begins, in Section 1.1, with
a brief history of forecast verification, followed by an indication of current
practice. It then discusses the reasons for, and benefits of, verification
(Section 1.2). Section 1.3 provides a brief review of types of fo ... read full excerpt from Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science ebook
