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Home > Business & Economics > Finance & Accounting > Stock Trader's Almanac 2005-eBook
Stock Trader's Almanac 2005
 
 
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Stock Trader's Almanac 2005
J.P. Morgan's classic retort "Stocks will fluctuate" is often quoted with a wink-of-the-eye implication that the only predication one can make about the stock market is that it will go up, down, or sideways. Many investors agree that no one ever really knows which way the market will move. Nothing could be farther from the truth. We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, the do so in well-defined, often predictable, patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence. How else do we explain that since 1950 practically all the gains in the market were made during November thorough April compared to almost nothing May through October? (See page 50)

The Almanac is a practical investment tool. Its wealth of information is organized on a calendar basis. It alerts you to those little-know market patterns and tendencies on which shrewd professional enhance profit potential.

You will be able to forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence when you use the Almanac to help you understand:

  • How our presidential elections affect the economy and the stock market - just as the moon affects the tides. Many investors have made fortunes following the political cycle. You can be sure that money managers who control billions of millions of dollars are also political cycle watchers. Astute people do not ignore a pattern that has been working effectively throughout most of our economic history.
  • How the passage of the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution fathered the January Barometer. This barometer has an outstanding record for predicting the general course of the stock market each year with only five major errors since 1950 for a 90.7% accuracy ratio.
  • Why there is a significant market bias at certain times of the day, week, month, and year.

Even if you are an investor who pays scant attention to cycles, indicators and patterns, your investment survival could hinge on your interpretation on one of the recurring patterns found with these pages. One of the most intriguing and important patterns is the symbiotic relationship between Washington and Wall Street. Aside from the potential profitability in seasonal patterns, there’s the pure joy of seeing the market very often do just what you expected.



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Title of ebook: Stock Trader's Almanac 2005
ISBN: 9780471718789
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Internet download file size: 5112 kb
Released online for download: 10-28-2004
Author of eBook: Hirsch, Jeffrey A.
Author of eBook: Hirsch, Yale
Author of eBook: Hirsch Organization

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Stock Trader's Almanac 2005


Chapter One

JANUARY'S FIRST FIVE DAYS AN "EARLY WARNING" SYSTEM

Of the 34 up First Five Days since 1950, 29 were followed by full-year gains for an 85.3% accuracy ratio and a 13.8% average gain in those 34 years. Of the five exceptions, 1994 was a flat year and four were war-related: Vietnam military spending delayed start of 1966 bear market; ceasefire imminence in early 1973 raised stocks temporarily; Saddam Hussein turned 1990 into a bear; and the war on terrorism, instability in the Near and Middle East and corporate malfeasance shaped 2002 into one of the worst years on record. The 20 down First Five Days were followed by 10 up years and 10 down (50% accurate).

In 8 of the last 13 Post-Election Years the S&P 500 posted a loss for January's First Five Days. Six were followed by full-year losses averaging -11.1%. 1993 rebounded 7.1% after the sluggish 1992 economy that factored into Bush Senior's ouster and 1985 followed the trend of no losing "5" years (see page 126). Five Post-Election First Five Days showed gains and only one subsequent full year, 1973, was a loser. This was the start of the previous major bear - caused by Vietnam, Watergate and OPEC. The other four years gained 22.6% on aver ... read full excerpt from Stock Trader's Almanac 2005 ebook



 


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