Mechanical Trading Systems
Chapter One
Dispelling
Myths and
Defining Terms
Mathematical Technical Analysis
and Mechanical Trading Systems
Appearances often are deceiving.
-Aesop
DISPELLING THE MYTHS: THE INEFFICIENT MARKET
AND THE HARD ROAD TO PROFITS
The Inefficient Market
If traders behaved in a rational manner, the market would be efficient and
trading would offer few opportunities for consistent profit, but time and
again market participants behave illogically, basing their decisions on emotional
responses. Perhaps the most compelling evidence in terms of market
participant irrationality is put forth by proponents of behavioral finance.
Behavioral finance, when traders or investors base decisions on emotions,
is diametrically opposed to theories of random market behavior and efficient
market hypothesis, which assumes that all market participants behave
rationally.
Recent acceptance of behavioral finance by the academic community
validates what technicians have known for well over 100 years: Market participants
behave irrationally, and it is this emotionalism that leads to st ... read full excerpt from Mechanical Trading Systems: Pairing Trader Psychology with Technical Analysis ebook