Modes of Parametric Statistical Inference
Chapter One
A Forerunner
1.1 PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE-AN EARLY EXAMPLE
An early use of inferred probabilistic reasoning is described by Rabinovitch
(1970).
In the Book of Numbers, Chapter 18, verse 5, there is a biblical injunction which
enjoins the father to redeem his wife's first-born male child by payment of five
pieces of silver to a priest (Laws of First Fruits). In the 12th Century the theologian,
physician and philosopher, Maimonides addressed himself to the following problem
with a solution. Suppose one or more women have given birth to a number
of children and the order of birth is unknown, nor is it known how many children
each mother bore, nor which child belongs to which mother. What is the
probability that a particular woman bore boys and girls in a specified sequence?
(All permutations are assumed equally likely and the chances of male or female
births is equal.)
Maimonides ruled as follows: Two wives of different husbands, one primiparous
(P) (a woman who has given birth to her first child) and one not (P). Let ... read full excerpt from Modes of Parametric Statistical Inference ebook
