The Myth of the Rational Market
A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street
Chapter One
Irving Fisher Loses His Briefcase, and Then His Fortune
The first serious try to impose reason and science
upon the market comes in the early decades of the
twentieth century. It doesn't work out so well.
It is 1905. A well-dressed man in his late thirties
talks intently into a pay phone at Grand Central Depot
in New York. Between his legs is a leather valise. The
doors of the phone booth are open, and a thief makes off
with the bag. It is, given what we know of its owner, of
excellent quality. Finding a willing buyer will not be a
problem.
The contents of the valise are another matter. Stuffed
inside is an almost-completed manuscript that brings
together economics, probability theory, and real-world
business practice in ways never seen before. It is part
economics treatise, part primer on what rational,
scientific stock market investing ought to look like. It
is a glimpse into Wall Street's distant future.
That science and reason might be applied to the stock
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