The Predictioneer's Game

“Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has demonstrated the power of using game theory and related assumptions of rational and self-seeking behavior in predicting the outcome of important political and legal processes. No one will fail to appreciate and learn from this well-written and always interesting account of his procedures.”—Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor Emeritus, Stanford University

“The Predictioneer's Game teaches us that we can predict how a conflict may be resolved if we carefully consider the incentives for all parties in the conflict. In an extraordinary range of applications, from ancient history to tomorrow's headlines, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita demonstrates the power of the game-theoretic approach.”—Roger B. Myerson, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor, University of Chicago

“Organized thought applied to problems can illuminate and help solve them. This easy and enjoyable read is, in many ways, a how-to book for that very purpose.”—George P. Shultz, former U.S. Secretary of State

"Shakespeare said that poetry was giving ‘to airy nothingness a local habitation and a name.’ Game theory has never been airy nothingness, but to those who through lack of exposure or (like me) the wrong kind of exposure years ago may have had such thoughts, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita follows Shakespeare's path and opens a new world. In Bueno de Mesquita's hands, game theory becomes a fascinating tool for understanding everything from how to steer the selection of a CEO to great swaths of both the past and future. Don't miss this one if you care about understanding how decisions are made–pretty much all decisions."—R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence; Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution

“Bueno de Mesquita has successfully turned the art of decision-making into a science - and enriched our understanding of politics and business in the process. Dispensing with clichés about rationality and irrationality, he explains how to predict behavior based on the relevant players’ interests and contexts. Bueno de Mesquita says he does not have a crystal ball, but this book gives readers the ingredients to build their own.”—Parag Khanna, author of The Second World: How Emerging Powers are Redefining Global Competition in the 21st Century

“Fruitful reading that will make it difficult to look at the world through quite the same eyes as in one’s virginal, pre—game theory days.”—Kirkus Reviews

“Provocative. . . . [this] cogently argued and fascinating brief will appeal to anyone interested in complex national-security issues.”—Publishers Weekly

From the Hardcover edition.

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Title of ebook: The Predictioneer's Game
ISBN: 9781588369086
parent-ISBN: 9781400067879
Publisher: Random House Publishing Group
Published: 09-2009
Released online for download: 09-29-2009
Author of eBook: Bueno De Mesquita, Bruce

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The Predictioneer's Game

Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future
Chapter One

WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO PUT YOU IN THIS CAR TODAY?

GAME THEORY" IS a fancy label for a pretty simple idea: that people do what they believe is in their best interest. That means they pay attention to how others might react if they choose to do one thing or another. Those "others" are anyone believed to be a prospective supporter or opponent. Looking at how their interests intersect or collide is basic to assessing potential outcomes of decision making. To get a good grip on what people are likely to do requires first approximating what they believe about the situation and what they want to get out of it. By estimating carefully people's wants and beliefs, anyone can make a reliable forecast of what each and every one of them will do. And if you can predict what will happen, then you can also predict what will happen if you alter what people believe about a situation. This is, in short, how we can use the same logic both for prediction and for engineering the future.

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