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Wolf, Charles Jr. North Korean Paradoxes: Circumstances, Costs, and Consequences of Korean Unification eBook

North Korean Paradoxes: Circumstances, Costs, and Consequences of Korean Unification

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Imprint: Rand Corporation

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Analyzes economic, political, and security issues associated with Korean unification. Considers how the North Korean system might unravel, leading to possible unification, and what the capital costs of unification would be under differing circumstances and assumptions. Compares points of relevance and nonrelevance between the German experience with unification in the 1990s and what might occur in Korea.

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Title of History eBook: North Korean Paradoxes: Circumstances, Costs, and Consequences of Korean Unification
Release Date: 05-19-2001
Publisher: Rand Corporation

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Parent title North Korean Paradoxes:...
Encrypted (DRM) Yes
SKU 9780833040787
File size 329
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North Korean Paradoxes: Circumstances, Costs, and Consequences of Korean Unification


Chapter One

Preamble: Purpose and Roadmap

The principal aim of this research is to analyze some of the central issues associated with Korean reunification-and especially its attendant costs. As essential background for the analysis, we begin in Chapters Two and Three with a brief examination of the structure and functioning of the North Korean system-what is known and not known about its various dimensions and particularly about its economy.

Chapter Four briefly summarizes how the system might unravel.

Chapter Five describes the simulations we have done to estimate the capital costs of reunification. The costs of reunification as estimated in this analysis are narrowly defined, focusing on the incremental capital requirements to double North Korea's GDP in a fouror five-year period. Our estimates include the costs of new plant and equipment, replacing existing but unproductive capital, and building infrastructure necessary to reach the specified macroeconomic growth targets. The estimates do not cover humanitarian, cultural, reeducational, and other social costs that would accompany reunification. Attempting to estimate these costs would be both difficult and elusive. Moreover, it can be argued that many and perhaps most of these burdens can be construed as appropriate priority tasks for a unified Korean government to discharge, rather than tasks to be accomplished before unification.

Notwithstanding the narrow definition of the covered costs, our estimates span a wide range reflecting the major uncertainties attached to the estimates. The simulation methodology is explained in Chapter Five and in the appendix

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