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Fund, International Monetary United States: Publication of Financial Sector Assessment Program Documentation - Detailed Assessment of Implementation of the IOSCO Objectives and Pr eBook

United States: Publication of Financial Sector Assessment Program Documentation - Detailed Assessment of Implementation of the IOSCO Objectives and Pr

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Imprint: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

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Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cross-country panel of growth forecasts and new methodological insights, this paper finds that: consensus forecasts are inefficient as predicted; this is not due to individual forecaster irrationality; forecasters appear unaware of this inefficiency; and a simple adjustment reduces forecast errors by 5 percent. Similar results are found using US nominal GDP forecasts. The paper also discusses the result's implications for users of forecaster surveys and for the literature on information aggregation.

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Title of Business & Economics eBook: United States: Publication of Financial Sector Assessment Program Documentation - Detailed Assessment of Implementation of the IOSCO Objectives and Pr
Release Date: 06-30-2006
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

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Parent title United States: Publication of...
Encrypted (DRM) Yes
SKU 9781455206667
File size 959
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